Kevin Schneider

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Rafael formed in the Atlantic on Monday and as of late Tuesday has strengthened to a category 1 hurricane. As of Tuesday night, Hurricane Rafael is passing through the Cayman Islands and is forecast to rapidly intensity until landfall in western Cuba.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2024/11/Screenshot 2024-11-05 195649-1730861845765.jpg">The path of Rafael looks to move over Cuba by Wednesday when it will start to affect the Florida Keys. From there, it will move into the Gulf of Mexico by Thursday. Gulf Coast states should be monitoring the updates on Rafael by this weekend. The latest forecast has Rafael strengthening to a category 2 hurricane.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2024/11/hurricane rafael-1730854354797.png">As this system moves North, heavy rainfall and gusty winds will be major impacts with this system. Florida and the southeast can see heavy rain impacts. Gulf residents should monitor forecasts daily for updates and changes. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2024/11/Screenshot 2024-11-05 130259-1730836987854.jpg"><h1>The 2024 Hurricane Season</h1>According to climatology, less than 10% of the seasonal energy is left for hurricane season now that we're in late October. Seasonal energy is measured by accumulated cyclone energy, also known as ACE. According to<a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/outlooks/hurricane2003/August/background_information.html#:~:text=The%20measure%20of%20overall%20activity,at%20least%20tropical%20storm%20strength."> NOAA</a>, ACE is essentially a "wind energy index" and based on that, the season can be defined as extremely active, above-average, near-average, and below-normal. In the Atlantic, the storms this season have brought us to an ACE value of 147, which is considered to be above average.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2024/11/Screenshot 2024-11-05 130416-1730837069459.jpg">The forecast for the season called for above-average activity, so that wasn't a surprise. What was a surprise was the number of landfalls so far, especially along the Gulf Coast.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2024/10/Web 5-1729683551299.png">So far, here is a look at the U.S. landfalls for the 2024 hurricane season. However, we still have a month to go...<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2024/11/Web 12-1730634791328.png">For more details on the Tropics be sure to join us on WeatherNation for the latest.

Alana Cameron

Category 1 Rafael Passing Over the Cayman Islands

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Alana Cameron was born and raised in Canada in the city of Mississauga, just outside of Toronto. Alana is the oldest of 4 siblings, all close in age, and grew up playing outside with them in all types of weather. After graduating high school, Alana moved to study at the University of British Columbia in Kelowna for a year before transferring to Dalhousie University in Halifax, Nova Scotia where she completed a Bachelor of Science in Physics and Atmospheric Science. Upon completion, Alana moved back to Toronto where she completed a post-grad degree in Meteorology at York University. After her post-grad, she went on to complete another post-grad in Broadcast Journalism - TV News at Fanshawe College in London, Ontario. During her final year of studies she had the privilege of interning with the best in the business in Canada at The Weather Network. Once she finished her internship, she got the call from small-town Denison, Texas where she accepted a job as an on-air meteorologist at KTEN-TV, right in tornado alley, covering severe weather from Sherman/Denison (North Texas) to Ada (Southern Oklahoma). After the most active tornado season Oklahoma had seen in May 2019 (105 tornadoes!) Alana is excited to join WeatherNation to cover weather all across the nation. If you're interested in following her on social media she can be found @alanacameronwx!

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INTERMOUNTAIN WEST - Autumn marks the beginning of the wet season for the western U.S. where we start to see an abundance of Pacific systems drag in coastal rainfall and mountain snowfall. That's the story for the first full week of November out West. From this past weekend, snowfall reports in Colorado were over a foot, spots like Copper Mountain received 22" in 24 hours, and the resort opens on Friday!<h2>Round 1 - Through Wednesday</h2>Another round of snow is on the way for the Colorado Rockies down to the lower elevations, winter weather alerts are in effect across Colorado.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2024/11/Screenshot 2024-11-05 131542-1730837862271.jpg">Snowfall totals with this first system may reach 3-8" for the mountains, southern foothills, and Palmer Divide. Snow will continue overnight through Wednesday.<h2><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2024/11/Screenshot 2024-11-05 182746-1730856473511.jpg">Round 2 - Wednesday to Friday</h2>New winter storm watches have been issued for New Mexico through Friday to account for both rounds of snowfall.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2024/11/Screenshot 2024-11-05 182811-1730856505988.jpg">Snowfall amounts may reach up to 10-15" across the state from now through Friday.<h2><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2024/11/Screenshot 2024-11-05 182819-1730856510439.jpg">Late Week Snow Scenarios</h2>There are a few uncertainties in the forecast based on different models for the Thursday to Friday round of snowfall that could influence Colorado and New Mexico. The BARON model favors a low pressure system closer to the Rocky Mountains, this would lead to heavier winter precip and impactful weather through Friday night. The GFS model favors a low pressure system farther to the east, this would lead to little to no impactful weather with less moisture and less snowfall.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2024/11/Screenshot 2024-11-05 140011-1730840499870.jpg">The forecast timing over this week is subject to change, but here is a look at what our in-house model is projecting for the snowfall timeline. Keep in mind, that this is following the colder scenario.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2024/11/11-05 bams3k-1730856518255.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>Tune in at :50 past the hour, to check out our Western Regional Forecast for all your details on the intermountain west snow!

Fresh Powder for the First Week of November

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Originally born in Spokane, Washington,  Jackie's Dad was in the Air Force which led her to a life of travel. She has lived in Wichita, Okinawa, Japan, Baltimore, New Jersey, Indiana and South Carolina.  After graduating from Kadena High School, in Okinawa Japan, she got a full basketball scholarship to Coppin State College. On the court she was a 4-year starter and reached over 1000 points in her basketball career. She was also named Athlete of the Year for the whole university in 2002. Off the court, she earned a degree in Broadcast Production/English.

After college, she landed a job as a radio personality. Jackie went on to have a successful career for 12 years working at KXLY broadcast center. While on the radio, she decided to change career. Jackie went back to school, graduating from the Mississippi State Meteorology Broadcast Program. From snow, to tornadoes, to hurricanes, she has had experience forecasting all these events.

Jackie Brown

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NORTHEAST - It's been a warm stretch of weather for the northeastern U.S. However, we've had our ups and downs, this first week of November has been above average for the northeastern U.S. Temperatures 10-20°+ above average will continue through Wednesday across the Middle Atlantic to the Northeast. Highs Tuesday broke records in spots like Pittsburgh, where the high rose to 81° beating the previous record for November 5th of 80° in 1948.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2024/11/Screenshot 2024-11-05 142108-1730841712865.jpg">Record-breaking warmth continues across the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and Northeast through Wednesday, before temperatures drop slightly behind the front. Record highs are possible from Tennessee through Maine!<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2024/11/Screenshot 2024-11-05 142213-1730841804916.jpg">We will see on-and-off rain chances over the next few days and temps dropping down by the end of the week, with the passing of a cold front.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2024/11/Screenshot 2024-11-05 142253-1730841810443.jpg">

Record Warm Election Day in the Northeast

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<h1>EXTREME FIRE WEATHER</h1>Powerful Santa Ana winds will increase the fire danger in portions of California over the next few days. Red flag warnings (above) have been issued for portions of California. Dry conditions and gusty winds will allow wildfires to rapidly grow in size and intensity. Outdoor burning is not recommended. The National Weather Service in Los Angeles/Oxford has issued a "particularly dangerous situation". In this type of situation gusts up to 80 mph will be possible. Downed trees and power outages will be possible, and you should use extra caution when driving.<div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="1853913821766934913" src="https://twitter.com/NWSLosAngeles/status/1853913821766934913/photo/1"></div>The "PDS" (particularly dangerous situation), will be in effect from Wednesday morning through the afternoon. This warning is for LA and Ventura counties, the Santa Barbara South Coast, and all mountains.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2024/11/pds red flag warning-1730844742546.png">Red flag warnings span all across California through Thursday.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2024/11/Screenshot 2024-11-05 182009-1730856196175.jpg">Gusty Northeast winds will range from 30 mph - 50 mph and isolated damaging gusts of 60 to 80 mph will be possible on Wednesday.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2024/11/gusts-1730845796975.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>For the latest updates on California's red flag warnings, tune in for our Western Regional Forecast:50 past the hour.

Dangerous Santa Ana Winds Prompt "Extreme" Fire Danger

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It's been an active stretch of severe weather coming out of the weekend and kicking off the week. Monday's enhanced risk (level 3 out of 5) of severe storms led to numerous tornado warnings, continuing the theme from this weekend. The system is slowly moving eastward through tomorrow.RELATED ARTICLE: <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.weathernationtv.com/news/tornadoes-tear-through-oklahoma-overnight">Weekend Storm Surveys</a><h2><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2024/11/Screenshot 2024-11-05 130525-1730837188995.jpg">Deep South</h2>Parts of Louisiana have been downgraded back to a MARGINAL risk for severe storms today (level 1 out of 5). This includes cities such as Alexandria, Memphis, and Evansville.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2024/11/Screenshot 2024-11-05 130554-1730837213869.jpg">While the ingredients won't be as potent as they were the past few days, damaging winds, large hail, and a tornado or two will be possible. The atmosphere appears to be just unstable enough to keep the threat around today.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2024/11/Screenshot 2024-11-05 061144-1730812314056.jpg">The widespread nature of this morning's storms has been dwindling across the South, with models forecasting additional storms possible across these areas, but not quite as intense as this morning and yesterday.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2024/11/11-05_rsc forecast-1730837323148.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><h2>WISCONSIN</h2>With limited instability, the wind shear this far north will have to do most of the lifting. The window of opportunity for these storms will be more narrow: from the early afternoon until about sunset.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2024/11/Screenshot 2024-11-05 130945-1730837433035.jpg"><video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2024/11/11-05_rnc_wisconsin hrrr-1730837451823.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>With many rounds of storms, rainfall totals have surpassed 6-7 inches already, with a few more inches possible. Flash flooding becomes easier to develop with such saturated soils in place.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2024/11/Screenshot 2024-11-05 131106-1730837482021.jpg">Stay weather aware as the severe weather and flooding threat remain elevated through the weekend. The Central Regional Forecast airs at :30 past the hour or get it anytime through the WeatherNation app.

Marginal Risk for Severe Weather from Louisiana to Wisconsin

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Happy Election Day! If you didn't cast your ballot already, you might be waiting in line to do so today. Some places, you'll want a rain jacket with you if you're standing outside, while others will be the hottest they've ever been (on November 4th).<h1>WET WEATHER</h1>Holding onto a piece of paper in the driving rain might make it a little more difficult when the skies open up. A strong Fall front is pushing through parts of the plains and Midwest. Louisiana and Wisconsin will have to watch the storms this afternoon. With some leftover energy, that could be just enough to power a few severe storms<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2024/11/Screenshot 2024-11-05 050842-1730808874437.jpg">RELATED ARTICLE: <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.weathernationtv.com/news/plainsmidwest-severe-storm-threat-ramps-up-sunday-into-monday">Severe Chances Continue</a>Where the rain will be the most persistent: Chicago - St. Louis - Little Rock - Shreveport<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2024/11/2024-11-05 05-09-32-1730808884811.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><h1>RECORD HIGHS</h1>Before the front arrives, warm weather is greeting many voters from the Ohio River Valley into the Northeast. The best shot at seeing records fall this afternoon will be in Indiana to Ohio and Kentucky, with highs approaching the 80's.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2024/11/Screenshot 2024-11-05 051523-1730808937763.jpg"><h1>ELSEWHERE</h1>The only other problematic spot will be around the northern Rockies, where you might want to hold on tight to your ballot. Winds will continue to be gusty throughout the day, on top of some more rain and snow.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2024/11/Screenshot 2024-11-05 051346-1730808944045.jpg">

Brittany Lockley

Election Day: Record Highs Possible for Some

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Storms rolling through the Southern Plains left a trail of destruction late Saturday night. Damaging storms destroyed numerous houses and trees after midnight, when many were trying to sleep.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2024/11/2024-11-03 06-33-25-1730640923049.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>An approaching trough sparked storms down in the New Mexico and Texas area before moving them into the state of Oklahoma. When they were moving through New Mexico and Texas, they were putting down 2-3 in diameter hailstones.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2024/11/Screenshot 2024-11-03 063504-1730640912292.jpg">As the shear increased in the evening, so did the tornado threat. Numerous tornado warnings were issued, including a confirmed tornado warning for parts of Oklahoma and Lincoln Counties. Debris was spotted on radar being lofted over 15,000 feet in the air at one point.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2024/11/Screenshot 2024-11-03 063120-1730640937654.jpg">The Oklahoma City Fire Department told local media that several structures sustained damage. They went on to mention five individuals were transported to local hospitals with non life-threatening injuries. The National Weather Service office in Norman has plans to survey the damage at daylight, but it will depend on the next round of storms rolling through Sunday.<div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="1853061373435187345" src="https://x.com/NWSNorman/status/1853061373435187345"></div>Read up on the severe threat this afternoon here: <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.weathernationtv.com/news/plainsmidwest-severe-storm-threat-ramps-up-sunday-into-monday">More Chances for the Plains </a>

Surveys Coming in From this Weekend's Storms

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On Monday, confirmed tornadoes were spotted in southern Minnesota. As storms continue to rumble through the Upper Midwest through early Tuesday, the SPC has maintained a SLIGHT (level 2 out of 5) risk for severe storms including the cities of Chicago, Milwaukee, and Dubuque.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2024/08/08-05_rnc_hrrr overnighted-1722908795746.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>Areas highlighted in green and brown below have a heightened threat of seeing enough spin in the atmosphere for a few, isolated tornadoes.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2024/08/Screenshot 2024-08-05 194430-1722908841852.png">With 1-3 inches potentially falling in a short amount of time, keep an eye on some of those low-water crossings. Some heavier totals will be possible too!<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2024/08/Screenshot 2024-08-05 134352-1722887039819.png">

Overnight Storms Target the Upper Midwest

Category 1 Rafael Passing Over the Cayman Islands

Rafael formed in the Atlantic on Monday and a

Fresh Powder for the First Week of November

INTERMOUNTAIN WEST - Autumn marks the beginni

Record Warm Election Day in the Northeast

NORTHEAST - It's been a warm stretch of weath

Dangerous Santa Ana Winds Prompt "Extreme" Fire Danger

EXTREME FIRE WEATHERPowerful Santa Ana winds

Marginal Risk for Severe Weather from Louisiana to Wisconsin

It's been an active stretch of severe weather

Election Day: Record Highs Possible for Some

Happy Election Day! If you didn't cast your b

Surveys Coming in From this Weekend's Storms

Storms rolling through the Southern Plains le