Kevin Schneider

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It's been historically hot from the High Plains to the Southern Plains - that's going to continue over the next few days. While records fall by the wayside, the atmosphere is getting primed to blow off some steam.Enter: a mighty cold front.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2024/10/Screenshot 2024-10-29 073240-1730208782362.jpg">This cold front will knock temperatures back to where they should be for the end of October. We've seen the temperatures swinging in the past few weeks like this, so what's different? Finally, we have some moisture this time. We'll welcome the beneficial rainfall, but severe storms might come with it. Let's talk about it.<h2>Through Wednesday</h2>As this trough swings the front in, we don't have the ingredients in place just yet. That means storms will struggle to fire this afternoon - likely having to wait until midnight before the atmosphere gets a little kick from the low-level jet ramping up. The tornado threat likely won't materialize overnight, but damaging winds and some large hail could.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2024/10/1029-1730221475170.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>This is the surest bet to see severe storms. Moisture will continue to flow northward, interacting with this sharp temperature drop. The passing trough overhead will stir the drink beneath, adding wind shear. With all of the ingredients coming together better, the threat for tornadoes will be there, especially during the afternoon to evening timeframe. Know where your day will take you, and have ways to receive warnings.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2024/10/Screenshot 2024-10-29 114733-1730224061038.png"><h2>Thursday</h2>As the front makes more headway southward, the severe threat will follow. The same storms that come together late Wednesday night will press toward the Mississippi River Delta and could get a little stronger after sunrise Thursday morning. There is still some uncertainty here, with a lot depending on how the storms behave the night prior. Right now, the Storm Prediction Center is going with a MARGINAL risk for severe storms (level 1 of 5).<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2024/10/Screenshot 2024-10-29 074239-1730209406603.png">The severe season never ends in the southeast, even moving into Winter. Keep it here for the latest updates on this latest threat.

Brittany Lockley

Storm Prediction Center Upgrades Severe Threat

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Tracey Anthony

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INTERMOUNTAIN WEST - As a low-pressure system progresses through the western U.S. it will bring changes in our weather including cooler temperatures, rainfall, and higher elevation snowfall. We expect snowfall to accumulate over the Rocky Mountains, San Juans, Wasatch, and Uintas. Winter alerts have been expanding across the mountains of the Intermountain West.Here's a look at the timing. Today, starts as a rain snow mix but most of the moisture will transition to snow Tuesday evening into Wednesday, as cool air fills in. A majority of the winter weather concerns will wrap up late morning, early afternoon on Wednesday but some additional snowfall will accumulate in higher elevations into Wednesday afternoon.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2024/10/Web Video 1-1730202777190.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><h1>Colorado &amp; Utah</h1>Colorado and Utah will be under winter weather advisories through the morning on Wednesday.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2024/10/Screenshot 2024-10-29 110621-1730221587118.png">For the I-25 corridor, through the Denver metro, there will be a chance for a messy commute on Wednesday morning.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2024/10/10-28 i25-1730162682483.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>Temperatures will drop significantly for highs and lows, especially in comparison to the warmth these areas have had over the last few weeks.<h1>Wyoming</h1><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2024/10/Screenshot 2024-10-29 110702-1730221627167.png">Accumulations will remain the highest in the higher elevations. Many ski resorts will begin to open up the first two weeks of November, so this is a perfect system for some ample fresh snow pack. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2024/10/Screenshot 2024-10-29 110815-1730221700912.png">For more details on localized snowfall totals, be sure to join us live on WeatherNation for your West Regional Forecast at :50 past the hour. We're streaming 24/7.

Taban Sharifi

Mountain Snow Headed for the Rockies

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WeatherNation Meteorologists

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<h1>Atlantic Basin</h1>Saturday evening, the National Hurricane Center highlighted an area in the Caribbean for potential tropical development in the next seven days. We will monitor this system as it moves eastward over the next seven days. The tropical season is not over yet!<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2024/10/Screenshot 2024-10-27 113232-1730050453153.jpg"><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2024/10/Screenshot 2024-10-27 113504-1730050519575.jpg">Whether or not this gets into the Gulf of Mexico will depend on the high pressure in place in the southeast. Some data suggests that it will drift southeast and weaken, which would open a lane to move north. HOWEVER, we would be talking the beginning of next week in terms of timing - which is quite a ways down the line, especially in "model land." Once a definite area of low pressure develops, often times models start handling outcomes more consistently<h2><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2024/10/Screenshot 2024-10-29 062202-1730204531132.jpg">Eastern Pacific</h2>The Eastern Pacific is still active as two new tropical waves are being monitored. One of which, 91-E could move in the vicinity of Hawaii, but still is uncertain to form. With that being said, the National Hurricane Center has dropped the chances of development in the past 24 hours on 91-E.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2024/10/Screenshot 2024-10-29 062959-1730205008441.jpg">IF anything develops here, a general westward-over open waters-is expected. No threat to land, although Hawaii could receive some impacts like elevated surf.<h1>The 2024 Hurricane Season</h1>According to climatology, less than 10% of the seasonal energy is left for hurricane season now that we're in late October. Seasonal energy is measured by accumulated cyclone energy, also known as ACE. According to<a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/outlooks/hurricane2003/August/background_information.html#:~:text=The%20measure%20of%20overall%20activity,at%20least%20tropical%20storm%20strength."> NOAA</a>, ACE is essentially a "wind energy index" and based on that, the season can be defined as extremely active, above-average, near-average, and below-normal. In the Atlantic, the storms this season have brought us to an ACE value of 145, which is considered to be above average.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2024/10/Screenshot 2024-10-22 061936-1729599583974.jpg">The forecast for the season called for above-average activity, so that wasn't a surprise. What was a surprise was the number of landfalls so far.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2024/10/Web 5-1729683551299.png">For more details on the Tropics be sure to join us on WeatherNation for the latest.

Tracking the Tropics: Waves in Both Basins

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It has been an unseasonably warm October for much of the lower 48. The record heat will continue with a ridge of high pressure out across most of the Central and Eastern U.S. Multiple records were set across the Plains on Monday including Norman, where we hit 93 degrees!<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2024/10/Screenshot 2024-10-28 185328-1730163219522.jpg">As we look ahead, on Wednesday a trough of low pressure will bring a drop in temperatures for folks in the Southwest and portions of the southern plains. Albuquerque will see a high temperature of 83° this afternoon, but by Wednesday be down to 62°. Oklahoma City will go from 87° on Monday to 77° on Wednesday.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2024/10/Screenshot 2024-10-28 144920-1730148570728.jpg">All of this hot weather will help any grass fire spread that much easier. Winds gusting to potentially 45-60 mph will make the problem worse. The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted areas from Oklahoma to Texas to Colorado and Nevada where fire weather conditions will exist.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2024/10/Web 5-1730206296041.png">More records are possible through Thursday across the Great Lakes and the Northeast. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2024/10/Web 6-1730207752881.png"><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2024/10/web 8-1730207806203.png">For more details on the heat, be sure to join us :10 minutes past the hour for your eastern regional forecast and :30 minutes past for your central regional forecast.

Record-Breaking Temperatures Continue, Fire Concerns Too

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We're only 3 days away from Halloween and although the kiddos may have their costumes picked out already the question is: will I have to wear a jacket that ruins my costume? That's where we come in - we're keeping an eye on where you might need the rain jacket when you hop on the broom and how cool it'll be when you emerge from the coffin.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2024/10/10-28_NAT HALL 12Z-1730148100870.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>Many of us have been running above average in the afternoons for the past few weeks. A driving cold front will at least knock us back to seasonal temperatures in time for Halloween night! The coldest temperatures around trick-or-treat time will be around the Twin Cities and Dakotas. However, many of us will be experiencing our city's warmest Halloween on record.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2024/10/Screenshot 2024-10-28 070725-1730120953833.jpg">One big city that might get a trick with the extended forecast is Chicago. While rain's in the forecast for Thursday, it will be east of the area by Thursday evening. Keep tabs on the forecast since the front could slow down more than we expect right now. But the rain looks like it'll be closer to a line from Cleveland to Nashville to Houston on Thursday evening. However, winds ahead and behind this system will be breezy - hopefully the decorations are anchored somehow!<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2024/10/Screenshot 2024-10-28 071356-1730121320758.jpg">Check back with WeatherNation as we get closer and closer big night, when we'll have more details!

Looking Ahead to the Halloween Forecast

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Originally born in Spokane, Washington,  Jackie's Dad was in the Air Force which led her to a life of travel. She has lived in Wichita, Okinawa, Japan, Baltimore, New Jersey, Indiana and South Carolina.  After graduating from Kadena High School, in Okinawa Japan, she got a full basketball scholarship to Coppin State College. On the court she was a 4-year starter and reached over 1000 points in her basketball career. She was also named Athlete of the Year for the whole university in 2002. Off the court, she earned a degree in Broadcast Production/English.

After college, she landed a job as a radio personality. Jackie went on to have a successful career for 12 years working at KXLY broadcast center. While on the radio, she decided to change career. Jackie went back to school, graduating from the Mississippi State Meteorology Broadcast Program. From snow, to tornadoes, to hurricanes, she has had experience forecasting all these events.

Jackie Brown

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A cold front has moved through the Northeast and has brought impacts. Temps remain cool and below average for Monday, but we see a bit of a warming trend moving in on Tuesday and Wednesday. Cool temps, dry conditions, and lower relative humidity have led to fire alerts into Monday morning.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2024/10/monday through weddd-1730078301109.png">Wind gusts, accompanied by drier air, will lead to another day of high fire danger around the Mid-Atlantic and New England. Connecticut is under a state of emergency due to widespread fire conditions and several ongoing brush fires. The Governor is urging residents to avoid outdoor burning.<div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="1849897891990769963" src="https://x.com/govnedlamont/status/1849897891990769963?s=46&amp;t=-mM3IWIbsm-xjGlLnOuhsA"></div>Fire alerts have been issued through Monday morning for portions of the Northeast. Dry weather, combined with low relative humidity and dry soils will make conditions favorable for wildfire development. Please use caution if you plan on doing any outdoor burning.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2024/10/Day1SVR-1730084588068.png">The cooler air should help to spur a few showers as moisture is picked up from the Great Lakes. Overnight, there will be limited rain and snow for portions of Northern New York, Vermont, and New Hampshire. Any light precipitation will taper off by the morning hours. Unfortunately, the precipitation won't likely be enough to benefit drought-stricken areas, which have become more widespread in recent weeks due to little or no precipitation in October. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2024/10/1-1729981765190.png">For more details on the heat, be sure to join us :10 minutes past the hour for your eastern regional forecast and 30 minutes past for your central regional forecast.

Patrick Crawford

Cold Front Increases NE Fire Danger, Light Snow Possible

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Rob grew up in South Florida, where daily afternoon storms and hurricanes piqued his interest in meteorology early on. That interest was fostered by his teachers and his father, who one time brought him onto the roof of their home to watch a funnel cloud move through the Everglades several miles away. Years of filmmaking and tv production in high school gradually pushed him toward broadcast meteorology at Florida State University, where he joined and eventually led the student run daily weather show. After graduating with a Bachelors of Science in Meteorology, he began his career at KESQ in Palm Springs, California before heading to KFSN in Fresno and WLOS in Asheville, North Carolina. He has covered a diverse array of extreme weather events, including haboobs and flash flooding in the desert, extreme snow in the Sierra, hurricanes, and Appalachian ice storms. He also enjoys telling stories and reporting about weather issues.

Connect with Rob on <a href="https://twitter.com/WxRobBradley">Twitter</a>

Rob Bradley

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Solar activity has been extraordinary in 2024, producing big bursts of cosmic energy that have created dazzling auroras, but also caused disruptions to technology in space and here on earth. Bill Murtagh, from the <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/">Space Weather Prediction Center</a>, says this high activity is expected to continue as <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/14683/">we’ve entered the solar maximum</a>. "The sun goes through this 11-year cycle where the polarities of the sun do a reversal. During the middle of that process, the magnetic field lines get distorted and twisted and stressed, and they punch out from the sun. We can actually see the visible manifestation that are these big groups of sunspots, 10, 15 times the size of the Earth. We're seeing a lot of sunspots right now because we are right in that solar maximum period."<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2024/10/002_Sunspot_ComparisonAUG-1729967878969.jpeg">While this likely means more beautiful displays of the northern and southern lights, this activity can have major impacts on technology many rely on. "So when we see these big coronal mass ejections, everyone gets excited for the potential for the aurora, but what we're concentrating on is what might happen to the electric power grid, GPS systems, GPS technologies, the astronauts in space," Murtagh said. "We'll be in contact with Mission Control at Johnson Space Center saying, folks, we've got a space weather event. Let's talk about what might happen and whether we need to get those astronauts into a safer part of the space station."The <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.weathernationtv.com/news/aurora-borealis-stuns-Friday-Night">extreme solar storm in May produced some of the strongest aurora activity in the last few decades</a>, but it also highly disrupted GPS data and communication. "One of the groups that was impacted more than anybody were the farmers," Murtagh continued. "Farmers are using GPS for high precision activities, for high precision seed planting and irrigation and fertilization and other activities. And on the 11th of May, they had to stop relying on GPS. And it was one of the most important farming days, seed planting days of the year, and economists just released a report a few weeks ago from Kansas State estimating the impact of that space weather storm on agriculture in this nation at half a billion dollars because of the loss of GPS." Thankfully, <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.nesdis.noaa.gov/news/noaa-shares-imagery-worlds-first-operational-space-based-coronagraph">a new coronagraph on the recently launched GOES 19 satellite</a>, will help space weather scientists like Bill, predict these events with more accuracy in the future. "A chronograph essentially creates an eclipse. So it's very important for us to be able to create an eclipse in the space where the forecasting business, because what we're doing is we're blocking out the sun. We want to see what's happening in the corona around the sun. So when there's an eruption occurs on the sun, I have different types of cameras that will show me that. But I want to see that coronal mass ejection. I want to see, first of all, if it happened. And if it happens, what direction it's going, if they're coming towards Earth, now I can use that coronagraph to measure the speed of the coronal mass ejection to determine when it's going to get here," Murtagh said. "These coronal mass ejections move anywhere from one to six million miles an hour. If you do the math, it's 93 million miles from sun to Earth, so it would take a day or three days to get here. That's the big range. And our customers, like the power grid operators, would like to know as precisely as possible when the magnetic disturbance will begin." For the latest information on current and predicted Space Weather, <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/">visit the SWPC's website</a>.

Alana Cameron

New Coronagraph Will Help Space Weather Prediction Through Solar Maximum

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Wild developments have surfaced from the state of California after local authorities arrested a man believed to be tied to the Park Fire. He pushed a burning car into a ditch, that started the blaze on Wednesday, July 24. The day it started, it grew over 124,000 acres with little containment. Now, the fire is <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.fire.ca.gov/incidents/2024/7/24/park-fire">burning more than 399k acres</a>. The fire is burning across Butte and Tehama County, north of Chico. According to CalFire, the fire continues to burn very actively in steep terrain, which has made it difficult to access for firefighters.Related article: <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.weathernationtv.com/news/Wildfire%20Smoke%20Impacting%20Air%20Quality%20Across%20the%20West,%20Central%20U.S.">Wildfire Smoke Impacting Air Quality Across the West, Central U.S.</a><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2024/08/1-1722656433076.png">The map below shows the Park Fire's recent activity which started after a burning car was pushed into a gully. On Wednesday, it was sparked and began moving to the north of Chico (red). Then Thursday (dark orange) it burned to the north. Friday (orange) the fire burned to the east and northwest. Saturday (light orange), the fire burned toward CA Highway 44. Then on Sunday and Monday (mustard to light yellow), more flames engulfed Highway 44 and reached farther east into the Plumas National Forest. Tuesday (lightest yellow) headed towards Mineral and Prattville.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2024/08/1-1722626545687.png">Within the first five days, the Park Fire grew to become one of California's largest wildfires on record. On Friday, August 2nd it surpassed 399,000 acres, making it the 4th largest wildfire in California state history. The largest wildfire (or group of fires) was the August Lightning Complex fires in northern California in 2020, when more than a million acres of land was scorched.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2024/08/1-1722626651028.png">We're entering the hottest time of the year in this part of the country, which could continue drying vegetation and making it conducive for fire starts. Prevent future fires by obeying burn bans, avoiding anything that sparks, and properly disposing of anything lit on fire. We will continue to update you on this developing story.